Deportivo Maldonado vs Peñarol Prediction & Preview
Primera (Uruguay) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 21:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA (URUGUAY)
Deportivo Maldonado vs Peñarol
Model pick: Peñarol (59%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.68 – 1.78
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Deportivo Maldonado | Peñarol |
|---|
| League position | #2 (45 pts) | #4 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | 0.7 / 1.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 0.8 | 2.4 / 0.4 |
*Deportivo Maldonado shown at home, Peñarol shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Deportivo Maldonado — last 5
DLDDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 46% of home games go over 2.5.
Peñarol — last 5
DDWWW
On the road: clean sheet 39% of the time; 42% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Deportivo Maldonado (home) | Peñarol (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | 0-2-1 in 3 (0.7 / 1.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 39% |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 42% |
| Top scorer | – | Matias Arezo (2) |
Primera (Uruguay) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.47
Home wins: 40%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Primera (Uruguay) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.68 vs 1.78):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (15%) |
| Double chance — Deportivo Maldonado or draw (1X) | 36% |
| Double chance — Peñarol or draw (X2) | 86% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 70% / 30% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 23% / 77% |
| Deportivo Maldonado clean sheet | 17% |
| Peñarol clean sheet | 51% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Peñarol is the model's most likely outcome at
59%. Despite playing away, Peñarol edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Deportivo Maldonado vs Peñarol — FAQ
Who will win Deportivo Maldonado vs Peñarol?
Our statistical model makes Peñarol the most likely result at 59%. Full probabilities: Deportivo Maldonado 16%, draw 24%, Peñarol 59%.
Will both teams score in Deportivo Maldonado vs Peñarol?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Deportivo Maldonado vs Peñarol?
Expected goals are 0.68 for Deportivo Maldonado and 1.78 for Peñarol — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Deportivo Maldonado vs Peñarol?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (15%). Double chance for Deportivo Maldonado or draw is 36%.