Deportivo Maldonado vs Wanderers Prediction & Preview
Primera (Uruguay) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 21:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA (URUGUAY)
Deportivo Maldonado vs Wanderers
Model pick: Deportivo Maldonado (35%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.08 – 1.07
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 43%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Deportivo Maldonado | Wanderers |
|---|
| League position | #2 (46 pts) | #5 (42 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 0.8 | 1.4 / 2.2 |
*Deportivo Maldonado shown at home, Wanderers shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Deportivo Maldonado — last 5
DDWDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 26% of the time; 46% of home games go over 2.5.
Wanderers — last 5
LWDLW
On the road: clean sheet 23% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Deportivo Maldonado (home) | Wanderers (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 26% | 23% |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 50% |
Primera (Uruguay) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.47
Home wins: 40%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Primera (Uruguay) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.08 vs 1.07):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Deportivo Maldonado or draw (1X) | 65% |
| Double chance — Wanderers or draw (X2) | 65% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 70% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 63% / 37% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 17% / 83% |
| Deportivo Maldonado clean sheet | 34% |
| Wanderers clean sheet | 34% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Deportivo Maldonado is the model's most likely outcome at
35%. Deportivo Maldonado are backed at home, where they average 1.1 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (57% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Deportivo Maldonado vs Wanderers — FAQ
Who will win Deportivo Maldonado vs Wanderers?
Our statistical model makes Deportivo Maldonado the most likely result at 35%. Full probabilities: Deportivo Maldonado 35%, draw 30%, Wanderers 35%.
Will both teams score in Deportivo Maldonado vs Wanderers?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Deportivo Maldonado vs Wanderers?
Expected goals are 1.08 for Deportivo Maldonado and 1.07 for Wanderers — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Deportivo Maldonado vs Wanderers?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Deportivo Maldonado or draw is 65%.