Deportivo Paraguayo vs Leandro N. Alem Prediction & Preview
Primera C Metro (Argentina) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 20:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA C METRO (ARGENTINA)
Deportivo Paraguayo vs Leandro N. Alem
Model pick: Deportivo Paraguayo (41%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.8 – 0.42
Total goals: 1.2
Over 2.5: 26%
Both teams score: 35%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Deportivo Paraguayo | Leandro N. Alem |
|---|
| League position | #13 (24 pts) | #11 (27 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.5 / 1.2 | 0.9 / 2.1 |
| Win rate this season* | 23% | 17% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.4 / 0.8 | 0.4 / 1.8 |
*Deportivo Paraguayo shown at home, Leandro N. Alem shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Deportivo Paraguayo — last 5
DLLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 20% of the time; 40% of home games go over 2.5.
Leandro N. Alem — last 5
DLLLL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 40% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Deportivo Paraguayo (home) | Leandro N. Alem (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-3-7 in 13 (0.5 / 1.2 goals per game) | 2-3-7 in 12 (0.9 / 2.1 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 20% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 20% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
Primera C Metro (Argentina) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 1.83
Home wins: 36%
Draws: 31%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 29%
BTTS: 33%
Use these Primera C Metro (Argentina) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.8 vs 0.42):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (30%) |
| Double chance — Deportivo Paraguayo or draw (1X) | 82% |
| Double chance — Leandro N. Alem or draw (X2) | 58% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 60% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 34% / 66% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 4% / 96% |
| Deportivo Paraguayo clean sheet | 66% |
| Leandro N. Alem clean sheet | 45% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Deportivo Paraguayo is the model's most likely outcome at
41%. Deportivo Paraguayo are backed at home, where they average 0.8 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (74% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Deportivo Paraguayo vs Leandro N. Alem — FAQ
Who will win Deportivo Paraguayo vs Leandro N. Alem?
Our statistical model makes Deportivo Paraguayo the most likely result at 41%. Full probabilities: Deportivo Paraguayo 41%, draw 40%, Leandro N. Alem 20%.
Will both teams score in Deportivo Paraguayo vs Leandro N. Alem?
The model gives a 35% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Deportivo Paraguayo vs Leandro N. Alem?
Expected goals are 0.8 for Deportivo Paraguayo and 0.42 for Leandro N. Alem — about 1.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Deportivo Paraguayo vs Leandro N. Alem?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (30%). Double chance for Deportivo Paraguayo or draw is 82%.