Deportivo Pasto vs Deportivo Pereira Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Colombia) · Aug 31, 2026 · kickoff 23:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (COLOMBIA)
Deportivo Pasto vs Deportivo Pereira
Model pick: Deportivo Pasto (44%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.31 – 0.93
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Deportivo Pasto | Deportivo Pereira |
|---|
| League position | #7 (34 pts) | #20 (10 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.4 | 0.2 / 1.8 |
*Deportivo Pasto shown at home, Deportivo Pereira shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Deportivo Pasto — last 5
WLLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 41% of the time; 34% of home games go over 2.5.
Deportivo Pereira — last 5
LLLDD
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 39% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Deportivo Pasto (home) | Deportivo Pereira (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 41% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34% | 39% |
| Top scorer | Andrey Estupinan Quinones (13) | Yuber Quinones (4) |
Primera Division (Colombia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.26
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 47%
Use these Primera Division (Colombia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.31 vs 0.93):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Deportivo Pasto or draw (1X) | 74% |
| Double chance — Deportivo Pereira or draw (X2) | 55% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 19% / 81% |
| Deportivo Pasto clean sheet | 39% |
| Deportivo Pereira clean sheet | 27% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Deportivo Pasto is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Deportivo Pasto are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (56% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Deportivo Pasto vs Deportivo Pereira — FAQ
Who will win Deportivo Pasto vs Deportivo Pereira?
Our statistical model makes Deportivo Pasto the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Deportivo Pasto 44%, draw 29%, Deportivo Pereira 28%.
Will both teams score in Deportivo Pasto vs Deportivo Pereira?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Deportivo Pasto vs Deportivo Pereira?
Expected goals are 1.31 for Deportivo Pasto and 0.93 for Deportivo Pereira — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Deportivo Pasto vs Deportivo Pereira?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Deportivo Pasto or draw is 74%.