Deportivo Pasto vs Rionegro Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Colombia) · Aug 01, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (COLOMBIA)
Deportivo Pasto vs Rionegro
Model pick: Deportivo Pasto (48%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.3 – 0.99
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 45%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Deportivo Pasto | Rionegro |
|---|
| League position | #7 (34 pts) | #12 (26 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.0 | 2.0 / 0.8 |
*Deportivo Pasto shown at home, Rionegro shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Deportivo Pasto — last 5
WLWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 42% of the time; 34% of home games go over 2.5.
Rionegro — last 5
WWWLW
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 41% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Deportivo Pasto (home) | Rionegro (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 42% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34% | 41% |
| Top scorer | Andrey Estupinan Quinones (13) | – |
Primera Division (Colombia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.26
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 47%
Use these Primera Division (Colombia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.3 vs 0.99):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Deportivo Pasto or draw (1X) | 72% |
| Double chance — Rionegro or draw (X2) | 56% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 67% / 33% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 20% / 80% |
| Deportivo Pasto clean sheet | 37% |
| Rionegro clean sheet | 27% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Deportivo Pasto is the model's most likely outcome at
48%. Deportivo Pasto are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (55% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Deportivo Pasto vs Rionegro — FAQ
Who will win Deportivo Pasto vs Rionegro?
Our statistical model makes Deportivo Pasto the most likely result at 48%. Full probabilities: Deportivo Pasto 48%, draw 28%, Rionegro 24%.
Will both teams score in Deportivo Pasto vs Rionegro?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Deportivo Pasto vs Rionegro?
Expected goals are 1.3 for Deportivo Pasto and 0.99 for Rionegro — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Deportivo Pasto vs Rionegro?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for Deportivo Pasto or draw is 72%.