Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Santa Fe Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Colombia) · Aug 05, 2026 · kickoff 23:25 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (COLOMBIA)
Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Santa Fe
Model pick: Independiente Santa Fe (36%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
36%
Independiente Santa Fe
Expected goals: 1.11 – 1.14
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Deportivo Pereira | Independiente Santa Fe |
|---|
| League position | #20 (10 pts) | #4 (35 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.4 / 3.6 | 1.0 / 0.8 |
*Deportivo Pereira shown at home, Independiente Santa Fe shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Deportivo Pereira — last 5
LLLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 36% of the time; 39% of home games go over 2.5.
Independiente Santa Fe — last 5
LWDWL
On the road: clean sheet 34% of the time; 40% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Deportivo Pereira (home) | Independiente Santa Fe (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 36% | 34% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 40% |
| Top scorer | Yuber Quinones (4) | – |
Primera Division (Colombia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.26
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 47%
Use these Primera Division (Colombia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.11 vs 1.14):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Deportivo Pereira or draw (1X) | 64% |
| Double chance — Independiente Santa Fe or draw (X2) | 65% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 19% / 81% |
| Deportivo Pereira clean sheet | 32% |
| Independiente Santa Fe clean sheet | 33% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Independiente Santa Fe is the model's most likely outcome at
36%. Despite playing away, Independiente Santa Fe edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (56% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Santa Fe — FAQ
Who will win Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Santa Fe?
Our statistical model makes Independiente Santa Fe the most likely result at 36%. Full probabilities: Deportivo Pereira 35%, draw 29%, Independiente Santa Fe 36%.
Will both teams score in Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Santa Fe?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Santa Fe?
Expected goals are 1.11 for Deportivo Pereira and 1.14 for Independiente Santa Fe — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Santa Fe?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Deportivo Pereira or draw is 64%.