Deportivo Saprissa vs Cartaginés Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Costa Rica) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 02:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (COSTA RICA)
Deportivo Saprissa vs Cartaginés
Model pick: Deportivo Saprissa (52%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.86 – 0.91
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Deportivo Saprissa | Cartaginés |
|---|
| League position | #1 (9 pts) | #3 (6 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 3.5 / 1.0 | 0.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.6 / 0.8 | 1.2 / 0.8 |
*Deportivo Saprissa shown at home, Cartaginés shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Deportivo Saprissa — last 5
WWWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 43% of the time; 63% of home games go over 2.5.
Cartaginés — last 5
DWDLW
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 47% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Deportivo Saprissa (home) | Cartaginés (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-0-0 in 2 (3.5 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 43% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 47% |
Primera Division (Costa Rica) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.7
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Primera Division (Costa Rica) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.86 vs 0.91):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (12%) |
| Double chance — Deportivo Saprissa or draw (1X) | 82% |
| Double chance — Cartaginés or draw (X2) | 40% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 30% / 70% |
| Deportivo Saprissa clean sheet | 40% |
| Cartaginés clean sheet | 16% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Deportivo Saprissa is the model's most likely outcome at
52%. Deportivo Saprissa are backed at home, where they average 2.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Deportivo Saprissa vs Cartaginés — FAQ
Who will win Deportivo Saprissa vs Cartaginés?
Our statistical model makes Deportivo Saprissa the most likely result at 52%. Full probabilities: Deportivo Saprissa 52%, draw 28%, Cartaginés 20%.
Will both teams score in Deportivo Saprissa vs Cartaginés?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Deportivo Saprissa vs Cartaginés?
Expected goals are 1.86 for Deportivo Saprissa and 0.91 for Cartaginés — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Deportivo Saprissa vs Cartaginés?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (12%). Double chance for Deportivo Saprissa or draw is 82%.