Deportivo Saprissa vs San Carlos Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Costa Rica) · Aug 02, 2026 · kickoff 22:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (COSTA RICA)
Deportivo Saprissa vs San Carlos
Model pick: Deportivo Saprissa (67%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.19 – 0.84
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 56%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Deportivo Saprissa | San Carlos |
|---|
| League position | #1 (3 pts) | #6 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 5.0 / 1.0 | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.0 | 1.2 / 1.4 |
*Deportivo Saprissa shown at home, San Carlos shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Deportivo Saprissa — last 5
DWWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 43% of the time; 63% of home games go over 2.5.
San Carlos — last 5
WLLDL
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Deportivo Saprissa (home) | San Carlos (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (5.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 43% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 54% |
Primera Division (Costa Rica) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.71
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Primera Division (Costa Rica) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.19 vs 0.84):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (12%) |
| Double chance — Deportivo Saprissa or draw (1X) | 87% |
| Double chance — San Carlos or draw (X2) | 32% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 81% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 81% / 19% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 36% / 64% |
| Deportivo Saprissa clean sheet | 43% |
| San Carlos clean sheet | 11% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Deportivo Saprissa is the model's most likely outcome at
67%. Deportivo Saprissa are backed at home, where they average 2.2 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.0, this shapes as an open game (56% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Deportivo Saprissa vs San Carlos — FAQ
Who will win Deportivo Saprissa vs San Carlos?
Our statistical model makes Deportivo Saprissa the most likely result at 67%. Full probabilities: Deportivo Saprissa 67%, draw 20%, San Carlos 13%.
Will both teams score in Deportivo Saprissa vs San Carlos?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Deportivo Saprissa vs San Carlos?
Expected goals are 2.19 for Deportivo Saprissa and 0.84 for San Carlos — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Deportivo Saprissa vs San Carlos?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (12%). Double chance for Deportivo Saprissa or draw is 87%.