Deportivo Táchira vs Caracas Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Venezuela) · Aug 30, 2026 · kickoff 21:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (VENEZUELA)
Deportivo Táchira vs Caracas
Model pick: Deportivo Táchira (54%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.6 – 0.74
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Deportivo Táchira | Caracas |
|---|
| League position | #3 (24 pts) | #2 (9 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.4 / 1.0 | 2.0 / 1.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 57% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 1.2 | 1.4 / 1.6 |
*Deportivo Táchira shown at home, Caracas shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Deportivo Táchira — last 5
WWWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 48% of the time; 45% of home games go over 2.5.
Caracas — last 5
LLWWD
On the road: clean sheet 31% of the time; 39% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Deportivo Táchira (home) | Caracas (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-1-2 in 7 (1.4 / 1.0 goals per game) | 1-2-0 in 3 (2.0 / 1.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 48% | 31% |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 39% |
| Top scorer | Luis Gonzalez (1) | – |
Primera Division (Venezuela) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.46
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 27%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Primera Division (Venezuela) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.6 vs 0.74):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (15%) |
| Double chance — Deportivo Táchira or draw (1X) | 83% |
| Double chance — Caracas or draw (X2) | 42% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 68% / 32% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 21% / 79% |
| Deportivo Táchira clean sheet | 48% |
| Caracas clean sheet | 20% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Deportivo Táchira is the model's most likely outcome at
54%. Deportivo Táchira are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Deportivo Táchira vs Caracas — FAQ
Who will win Deportivo Táchira vs Caracas?
Our statistical model makes Deportivo Táchira the most likely result at 54%. Full probabilities: Deportivo Táchira 54%, draw 26%, Caracas 19%.
Will both teams score in Deportivo Táchira vs Caracas?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Deportivo Táchira vs Caracas?
Expected goals are 1.6 for Deportivo Táchira and 0.74 for Caracas — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Deportivo Táchira vs Caracas?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (15%). Double chance for Deportivo Táchira or draw is 83%.