Deportivo Táchira vs Monagas Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Venezuela) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 21:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (VENEZUELA)
Deportivo Táchira vs Monagas
Model pick: Deportivo Táchira (60%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.91 – 0.74
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Deportivo Táchira | Monagas |
|---|
| League position | #3 (24 pts) | #12 (11 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.4 / 1.0 | 0.5 / 2.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 57% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 0.4 | 1.2 / 1.4 |
*Deportivo Táchira shown at home, Monagas shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Deportivo Táchira — last 5
WWWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 49% of the time; 45% of home games go over 2.5.
Monagas — last 5
LWLLW
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 46% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Deportivo Táchira (home) | Monagas (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-1-2 in 7 (1.4 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-0-6 in 6 (0.5 / 2.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 49% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 46% |
| Top scorer | Luis Gonzalez (1) | – |
Primera Division (Venezuela) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.47
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 27%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Primera Division (Venezuela) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.91 vs 0.74):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Deportivo Táchira or draw (1X) | 86% |
| Double chance — Monagas or draw (X2) | 35% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 74% / 26% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 27% / 73% |
| Deportivo Táchira clean sheet | 48% |
| Monagas clean sheet | 15% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Deportivo Táchira is the model's most likely outcome at
60%. Deportivo Táchira are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Deportivo Táchira vs Monagas — FAQ
Who will win Deportivo Táchira vs Monagas?
Our statistical model makes Deportivo Táchira the most likely result at 60%. Full probabilities: Deportivo Táchira 60%, draw 24%, Monagas 17%.
Will both teams score in Deportivo Táchira vs Monagas?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Deportivo Táchira vs Monagas?
Expected goals are 1.91 for Deportivo Táchira and 0.74 for Monagas — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Deportivo Táchira vs Monagas?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for Deportivo Táchira or draw is 86%.