Derby County vs Cardiff City Prediction & Preview
Championship (England) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
CHAMPIONSHIP (ENGLAND)
Derby County vs Cardiff City
Model pick: Derby County (49%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.6 – 0.98
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Derby County | Cardiff City |
|---|
| League position | #17 (0 pts) | #15 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.4 | 3.6 / 2.2 |
*Derby County shown at home, Cardiff City shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Derby County — last 5
WLDLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 39% of the time; 42% of home games go over 2.5.
Cardiff City — last 5
LWWWW
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 51% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Derby County (home) | Cardiff City (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 39% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 51% |
| Top scorer | – | Yousef Salech (14) |
Championship (England) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.54
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 51%
Use these Championship (England) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.6 vs 0.98):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (12%) |
| Double chance — Derby County or draw (1X) | 77% |
| Double chance — Cardiff City or draw (X2) | 48% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 26% / 74% |
| Derby County clean sheet | 38% |
| Cardiff City clean sheet | 20% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Derby County is the model's most likely outcome at
49%. Derby County are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Derby County vs Cardiff City — FAQ
Who will win Derby County vs Cardiff City?
Our statistical model makes Derby County the most likely result at 49%. Full probabilities: Derby County 49%, draw 27%, Cardiff City 24%.
Will both teams score in Derby County vs Cardiff City?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Derby County vs Cardiff City?
Expected goals are 1.6 for Derby County and 0.98 for Cardiff City — about 2.6 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Derby County vs Cardiff City?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (12%). Double chance for Derby County or draw is 77%.