Derby County vs Swansea City Prediction & Preview
Championship (England) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 11:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
CHAMPIONSHIP (ENGLAND)
Derby County vs Swansea City
Model pick: Derby County (42%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.4 – 1.11
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Derby County | Swansea City |
|---|
| League position | #16 (1 pts) | #9 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 2.0 | 2.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.6 | 0.6 / 1.0 |
*Derby County shown at home, Swansea City shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Derby County — last 5
LDLLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 39% of the time; 42% of home games go over 2.5.
Swansea City — last 5
LWLWD
On the road: clean sheet 23% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Derby County (home) | Swansea City (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-0 in 1 (2.0 / 2.0 goals per game) | 1-0-0 in 1 (2.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 39% | 23% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 50% |
Championship (England) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.54
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 51%
Use these Championship (England) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.4 vs 1.11):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Derby County or draw (1X) | 70% |
| Double chance — Swansea City or draw (X2) | 56% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 71% / 29% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 24% / 76% |
| Derby County clean sheet | 33% |
| Swansea City clean sheet | 25% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Derby County is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Derby County are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
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❓ Derby County vs Swansea City — FAQ
Who will win Derby County vs Swansea City?
Our statistical model makes Derby County the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Derby County 42%, draw 28%, Swansea City 30%.
Will both teams score in Derby County vs Swansea City?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Derby County vs Swansea City?
Expected goals are 1.4 for Derby County and 1.11 for Swansea City — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Derby County vs Swansea City?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Derby County or draw is 70%.