Derby County vs West Bromwich Albion Prediction & Preview
Championship (England) · Sep 09, 2026 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
CHAMPIONSHIP (ENGLAND)
Derby County vs West Bromwich Albion
Model pick: Derby County (40%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.25 – 1.12
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Derby County | West Bromwich Albion |
|---|
| League position | #16 (4 pts) | #7 (7 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 2.5 | 1.5 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.8 | 1.8 / 1.8 |
*Derby County shown at home, West Bromwich Albion shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Derby County — last 5
LLDLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 39% of the time; 42% of home games go over 2.5.
West Bromwich Albion — last 5
WWLLD
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 47% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Derby County (home) | West Bromwich Albion (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-1 in 2 (1.0 / 2.5 goals per game) | 1-0-1 in 2 (1.5 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 39% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 47% |
Championship (England) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.54
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 51%
Use these Championship (England) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.25 vs 1.12):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Derby County or draw (1X) | 67% |
| Double chance — West Bromwich Albion or draw (X2) | 61% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 68% / 32% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 22% / 78% |
| Derby County clean sheet | 33% |
| West Bromwich Albion clean sheet | 29% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Derby County is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Derby County are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
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❓ Derby County vs West Bromwich Albion — FAQ
Who will win Derby County vs West Bromwich Albion?
Our statistical model makes Derby County the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Derby County 40%, draw 28%, West Bromwich Albion 31%.
Will both teams score in Derby County vs West Bromwich Albion?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Derby County vs West Bromwich Albion?
Expected goals are 1.25 for Derby County and 1.12 for West Bromwich Albion — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Derby County vs West Bromwich Albion?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Derby County or draw is 67%.