Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Ireland) · Aug 28, 2026 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (IRELAND)
Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers
Model pick: Shamrock Rovers (37%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.17 – 1.22
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 47%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Derry City | Shamrock Rovers |
|---|
| League position | #6 (33 pts) | #31 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.6 / 1.1 | 1.0 / 2.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 43% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.6 | 2.0 / 2.4 |
*Derry City shown at home, Shamrock Rovers shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Derry City — last 5
LDWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 38% of the time; 51% of home games go over 2.5.
Shamrock Rovers — last 5
WWLLD
On the road: clean sheet 39% of the time; 43% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Derry City (home) | Shamrock Rovers (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-5-3 in 14 (1.6 / 1.1 goals per game) | 0-1-2 in 3 (1.0 / 2.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 38% | 39% |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 44% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 43% |
Premier League (Ireland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.52
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Premier League (Ireland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.17 vs 1.22):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Derry City or draw (1X) | 63% |
| Double chance — Shamrock Rovers or draw (X2) | 65% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 69% / 31% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 22% / 78% |
| Derry City clean sheet | 30% |
| Shamrock Rovers clean sheet | 31% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Shamrock Rovers is the model's most likely outcome at
37%. Despite playing away, Shamrock Rovers edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (53% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers — FAQ
Who will win Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model makes Shamrock Rovers the most likely result at 37%. Full probabilities: Derry City 35%, draw 28%, Shamrock Rovers 37%.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Expected goals are 1.17 for Derry City and 1.22 for Shamrock Rovers — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Derry City or draw is 63%.