Dijon vs Pau Prediction & Preview
Ligue 2 (France) · Aug 14, 2026 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGUE 2 (FRANCE)
Dijon vs Pau
Model pick: Dijon (44%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.58 – 1.2
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Dijon | Pau |
|---|
| League position | #7 (1 pts) | #15 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.4 / 1.0 | 0.8 / 2.2 |
*Dijon shown at home, Pau shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Dijon — last 5
WWWDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 29% of the time; 47% of home games go over 2.5.
Pau — last 5
WLLLL
On the road: clean sheet 16% of the time; 53% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Dijon (home) | Pau (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 29% | 16% |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% |
| Top scorer | – | Giovani Versini (6) |
Ligue 2 (France) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.43
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Ligue 2 (France) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.58 vs 1.2):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Dijon or draw (1X) | 71% |
| Double chance — Pau or draw (X2) | 54% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 77% / 23% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 30% / 70% |
| Dijon clean sheet | 30% |
| Pau clean sheet | 21% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Dijon is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Dijon are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Dijon vs Pau — FAQ
Who will win Dijon vs Pau?
Our statistical model makes Dijon the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Dijon 44%, draw 26%, Pau 30%.
Will both teams score in Dijon vs Pau?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Dijon vs Pau?
Expected goals are 1.58 for Dijon and 1.2 for Pau — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Dijon vs Pau?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Dijon or draw is 71%.