Dila vs Gagra Prediction & Preview
Umaglesi Liga (Georgia) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
UMAGLESI LIGA (GEORGIA)
Dila vs Gagra
Model pick: Dila (59%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.91 – 0.8
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Dila | Gagra |
|---|
| League position | #7 (30 pts) | #8 (24 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.4 / 1.0 | 0.9 / 1.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 42% | 27% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.4 | 1.4 / 1.4 |
*Dila shown at home, Gagra shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Dila — last 5
LWWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 38% of the time; 48% of home games go over 2.5.
Gagra — last 5
WDDLD
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 51% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Dila (home) | Gagra (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-3-4 in 12 (1.4 / 1.0 goals per game) | 3-4-4 in 11 (0.9 / 1.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 38% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 51% |
Umaglesi Liga (Georgia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.7
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 49%
Use these Umaglesi Liga (Georgia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.91 vs 0.8):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Dila or draw (1X) | 85% |
| Double chance — Gagra or draw (X2) | 36% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 75% / 25% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 29% / 71% |
| Dila clean sheet | 45% |
| Gagra clean sheet | 15% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Dila is the model's most likely outcome at
59%. Dila are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Dila vs Gagra — FAQ
Who will win Dila vs Gagra?
Our statistical model makes Dila the most likely result at 59%. Full probabilities: Dila 59%, draw 24%, Gagra 18%.
Will both teams score in Dila vs Gagra?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Dila vs Gagra?
Expected goals are 1.91 for Dila and 0.8 for Gagra — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Dila vs Gagra?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for Dila or draw is 85%.