Dinamo Batumi vs Gagra Prediction & Preview
Umaglesi Liga (Georgia) · Aug 08, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
UMAGLESI LIGA (GEORGIA)
Dinamo Batumi vs Gagra
Model pick: Dinamo Batumi (52%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.82 – 1.06
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Dinamo Batumi | Gagra |
|---|
| League position | #5 (27 pts) | #9 (22 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.8 / 1.6 | 0.9 / 1.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 56% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.6 | 2.4 / 1.4 |
*Dinamo Batumi shown at home, Gagra shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Dinamo Batumi — last 5
WLLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 38% of the time; 51% of home games go over 2.5.
Gagra — last 5
LDWWW
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Dinamo Batumi (home) | Gagra (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-2-2 in 9 (1.8 / 1.6 goals per game) | 3-3-3 in 9 (0.9 / 1.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 38% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 50% |
Umaglesi Liga (Georgia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.69
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 49%
Use these Umaglesi Liga (Georgia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.82 vs 1.06):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Dinamo Batumi or draw (1X) | 78% |
| Double chance — Gagra or draw (X2) | 45% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 78% / 22% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 33% / 67% |
| Dinamo Batumi clean sheet | 35% |
| Gagra clean sheet | 16% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Dinamo Batumi is the model's most likely outcome at
52%. Dinamo Batumi are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Dinamo Batumi vs Gagra — FAQ
Who will win Dinamo Batumi vs Gagra?
Our statistical model makes Dinamo Batumi the most likely result at 52%. Full probabilities: Dinamo Batumi 52%, draw 24%, Gagra 24%.
Will both teams score in Dinamo Batumi vs Gagra?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Dinamo Batumi vs Gagra?
Expected goals are 1.82 for Dinamo Batumi and 1.06 for Gagra — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Dinamo Batumi vs Gagra?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Dinamo Batumi or draw is 78%.