Dinamo Zagreb vs Varaždin Prediction & Preview
HNL (Croatia) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
HNL (CROATIA)
Dinamo Zagreb vs Varaždin
Model pick: Dinamo Zagreb (70%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.99 – 0.71
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Dinamo Zagreb | Varaždin |
|---|
| League position | #3 (6 pts) | #2 (9 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 3.0 / 0.0 | 4.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 3.2 / 0.6 | 2.2 / 1.2 |
*Dinamo Zagreb shown at home, Varaždin shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Dinamo Zagreb — last 5
WWWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 52% of the time; 57% of home games go over 2.5.
Varaždin — last 5
WLWWW
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 38% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Dinamo Zagreb (home) | Varaždin (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-0-0 in 2 (3.0 / 0.0 goals per game) | 1-0-0 in 1 (4.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 52% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 38% |
| Top scorer | Marko Pajac (6) | Ivan Mamut (6) |
HNL (Croatia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.61
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 48%
Use these HNL (Croatia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.99 vs 0.71):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Dinamo Zagreb or draw (1X) | 88% |
| Double chance — Varaždin or draw (X2) | 33% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 80% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 75% / 25% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 29% / 71% |
| Dinamo Zagreb clean sheet | 49% |
| Varaždin clean sheet | 14% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Dinamo Zagreb is the model's most likely outcome at
70%. Dinamo Zagreb are backed at home, where they average 2.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Dinamo Zagreb vs Varaždin — FAQ
Who will win Dinamo Zagreb vs Varaždin?
Our statistical model makes Dinamo Zagreb the most likely result at 70%. Full probabilities: Dinamo Zagreb 70%, draw 19%, Varaždin 11%.
Will both teams score in Dinamo Zagreb vs Varaždin?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Dinamo Zagreb vs Varaždin?
Expected goals are 1.99 for Dinamo Zagreb and 0.71 for Varaždin — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Dinamo Zagreb vs Varaždin?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for Dinamo Zagreb or draw is 88%.