Dnepr Mogilev vs Naftan Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Belarus) · Jul 31, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (BELARUS)
Dnepr Mogilev vs Naftan
Model pick: Dnepr Mogilev (37%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.26 – 1.62
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Dnepr Mogilev | Naftan |
|---|
| League position | #13 (11 pts) | #16 (6 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.9 / 1.0 | 1.0 / 3.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 14% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.2 | 1.4 / 2.6 |
*Dnepr Mogilev shown at home, Naftan shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Dnepr Mogilev — last 5
WLLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 18% of the time; 54% of home games go over 2.5.
Naftan — last 5
LLWLD
On the road: clean sheet 14% of the time; 49% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Dnepr Mogilev (home) | Naftan (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-3-3 in 7 (0.9 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-0-6 in 6 (1.0 / 3.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 18% | 14% |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 45% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 49% |
Premier League (Belarus) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.53
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 44%
Use these Premier League (Belarus) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.26 vs 1.62):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Dnepr Mogilev or draw (1X) | 54% |
| Double chance — Naftan or draw (X2) | 70% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 78% / 22% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 33% / 67% |
| Dnepr Mogilev clean sheet | 20% |
| Naftan clean sheet | 28% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Dnepr Mogilev is the model's most likely outcome at
37%. Dnepr Mogilev are backed at home, where they average 0.8 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Dnepr Mogilev vs Naftan — FAQ
Who will win Dnepr Mogilev vs Naftan?
Our statistical model makes Dnepr Mogilev the most likely result at 37%. Full probabilities: Dnepr Mogilev 37%, draw 28%, Naftan 36%.
Will both teams score in Dnepr Mogilev vs Naftan?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Dnepr Mogilev vs Naftan?
Expected goals are 1.26 for Dnepr Mogilev and 1.62 for Naftan — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Dnepr Mogilev vs Naftan?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Dnepr Mogilev or draw is 54%.