Dock Sud vs San Martín Burzaco Prediction & Preview
Prim B Metro (Argentina) · Aug 08, 2026 · kickoff 20:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIM B METRO (ARGENTINA)
Dock Sud vs San Martín Burzaco
Model pick: Dock Sud (43%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.34 – 0.98
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 45%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Dock Sud | San Martín Burzaco |
|---|
| League position | #14 (33 pts) | #12 (36 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.2 / 0.7 | 0.9 / 0.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 36% | 43% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 1.2 |
*Dock Sud shown at home, San Martín Burzaco shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Dock Sud — last 5
LDWDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 41% of home games go over 2.5.
San Martín Burzaco — last 5
DWLLD
On the road: clean sheet 11% of the time; 39% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Dock Sud (home) | San Martín Burzaco (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-6-3 in 14 (1.2 / 0.7 goals per game) | 6-5-3 in 14 (0.9 / 0.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 11% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 39% |
Prim B Metro (Argentina) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.06
Home wins: 39%
Draws: 33%
Away wins: 28%
Over 2.5: 35%
BTTS: 43%
Use these Prim B Metro (Argentina) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.34 vs 0.98):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Dock Sud or draw (1X) | 73% |
| Double chance — San Martín Burzaco or draw (X2) | 55% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 67% / 33% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 20% / 80% |
| Dock Sud clean sheet | 38% |
| San Martín Burzaco clean sheet | 26% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Dock Sud is the model's most likely outcome at
43%. Dock Sud are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (55% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Dock Sud vs San Martín Burzaco — FAQ
Who will win Dock Sud vs San Martín Burzaco?
Our statistical model makes Dock Sud the most likely result at 43%. Full probabilities: Dock Sud 43%, draw 29%, San Martín Burzaco 28%.
Will both teams score in Dock Sud vs San Martín Burzaco?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Dock Sud vs San Martín Burzaco?
Expected goals are 1.34 for Dock Sud and 0.98 for San Martín Burzaco — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Dock Sud vs San Martín Burzaco?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for Dock Sud or draw is 73%.