Dolomiti Bellunesi vs Alcione Milano Prediction & Preview
Serie C - Group A (Italy) · Aug 30, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE C - GROUP A (ITALY)
Dolomiti Bellunesi vs Alcione Milano
Model pick: Alcione Milano (40%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.85 – 1.12
Total goals: 2.0
Over 2.5: 40%
Both teams score: 47%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Dolomiti Bellunesi | Alcione Milano |
|---|
| League position | #17 (40 pts) | #8 (55 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.1 / 1.3 | 0.7 / 0.9 |
| Win rate this season* | 32% | 32% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.4 | 1.0 / 1.8 |
*Dolomiti Bellunesi shown at home, Alcione Milano shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Dolomiti Bellunesi — last 5
LLDWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 40% of the time; 35% of home games go over 2.5.
Alcione Milano — last 5
DLLLW
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 20% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Dolomiti Bellunesi (home) | Alcione Milano (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-4-9 in 19 (1.1 / 1.3 goals per game) | 6-5-8 in 19 (0.7 / 0.9 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 40% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 34% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 20% |
Serie C - Group A (Italy) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.33
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 41%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Serie C - Group A (Italy) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.85 vs 1.12):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (16%) |
| Double chance — Dolomiti Bellunesi or draw (1X) | 58% |
| Double chance — Alcione Milano or draw (X2) | 72% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 69% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 59% / 41% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 14% / 86% |
| Dolomiti Bellunesi clean sheet | 33% |
| Alcione Milano clean sheet | 43% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Alcione Milano is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Despite playing away, Alcione Milano edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (60% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Dolomiti Bellunesi vs Alcione Milano — FAQ
Who will win Dolomiti Bellunesi vs Alcione Milano?
Our statistical model makes Alcione Milano the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Dolomiti Bellunesi 28%, draw 31%, Alcione Milano 40%.
Will both teams score in Dolomiti Bellunesi vs Alcione Milano?
The model gives a 47% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Dolomiti Bellunesi vs Alcione Milano?
Expected goals are 0.85 for Dolomiti Bellunesi and 1.12 for Alcione Milano — about 2.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Dolomiti Bellunesi vs Alcione Milano?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (16%). Double chance for Dolomiti Bellunesi or draw is 58%.