Dordrecht vs AZ II Prediction & Preview
Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 14:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EERSTE DIVISIE (NETHERLANDS)
Dordrecht vs AZ II
Model pick: Dordrecht (44%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.82 – 1.45
Total goals: 3.3
Over 2.5: 58%
Both teams score: 59%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Dordrecht | AZ II |
|---|
| League position | #4 (0 pts) | #19 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 2.4 | 2.8 / 1.8 |
*Dordrecht shown at home, AZ II shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Dordrecht — last 5
LWDLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 23% of the time; 61% of home games go over 2.5.
AZ II — last 5
WLWLL
On the road: clean sheet 12% of the time; 67% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Dordrecht (home) | AZ II (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 23% | 12% |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 67% |
| Top scorer | – | Sem van Duijn (9) |
Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.15
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 61%
BTTS: 60%
Use these Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.82 vs 1.45):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Dordrecht or draw (1X) | 69% |
| Double chance — AZ II or draw (X2) | 54% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 84% / 16% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 41% / 59% |
| Dordrecht clean sheet | 23% |
| AZ II clean sheet | 16% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Dordrecht is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Dordrecht are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.3, this shapes as an open game (58% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Dordrecht vs AZ II — FAQ
Who will win Dordrecht vs AZ II?
Our statistical model makes Dordrecht the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Dordrecht 44%, draw 24%, AZ II 31%.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs AZ II?
The model gives a 59% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Dordrecht vs AZ II?
Expected goals are 1.82 for Dordrecht and 1.45 for AZ II — about 3.3 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Dordrecht vs AZ II?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Dordrecht or draw is 69%.