Dordrecht vs Roda JC Prediction & Preview
Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Aug 21, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EERSTE DIVISIE (NETHERLANDS)
Dordrecht vs Roda JC
Model pick: Dordrecht (38%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.41 – 1.31
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Dordrecht | Roda JC |
|---|
| League position | #4 (0 pts) | #14 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 1.4 | 1.2 / 1.6 |
*Dordrecht shown at home, Roda JC shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Dordrecht — last 5
WDLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 23% of the time; 62% of home games go over 2.5.
Roda JC — last 5
LWLLW
On the road: clean sheet 17% of the time; 56% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Dordrecht (home) | Roda JC (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 23% | 17% |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 56% |
Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.14
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 61%
BTTS: 60%
Use these Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.41 vs 1.31):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Dordrecht or draw (1X) | 65% |
| Double chance — Roda JC or draw (X2) | 61% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 75% / 25% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 29% / 71% |
| Dordrecht clean sheet | 27% |
| Roda JC clean sheet | 24% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Dordrecht is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Dordrecht are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Dordrecht vs Roda JC — FAQ
Who will win Dordrecht vs Roda JC?
Our statistical model makes Dordrecht the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Dordrecht 38%, draw 27%, Roda JC 35%.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Roda JC?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Dordrecht vs Roda JC?
Expected goals are 1.41 for Dordrecht and 1.31 for Roda JC — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Dordrecht vs Roda JC?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Dordrecht or draw is 65%.