Dorogi vs Papai Perutz Prediction & Preview
Nb III (Hungary) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
NB III (HUNGARY)
Dorogi vs Papai Perutz
Model pick: Dorogi (97%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 5.75 – 0.45
Total goals: 6.2
Over 2.5: 80%
Both teams score: 45%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Dorogi | Papai Perutz |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 3.4 / 0.8 | 1.2 / 2.2 |
*Dorogi shown at home, Papai Perutz shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Dorogi — last 5
DWWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 67% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
Papai Perutz — last 5
WDLWL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Dorogi (home) | Papai Perutz (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 67% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 100% |
Nb III (Hungary) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.51
Home wins: 51%
Draws: 18%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 68%
BTTS: 55%
Use these Nb III (Hungary) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (5.75 vs 0.45):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 5-0 (12%) |
| Double chance — Dorogi or draw (1X) | 100% |
| Double chance — Papai Perutz or draw (X2) | 2% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 99% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 98% / 2% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 85% / 15% |
| Dorogi clean sheet | 64% |
| Papai Perutz clean sheet | 0% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Dorogi is the model's most likely outcome at
97%. Dorogi are backed at home, where they average 3.7 goals a game. With expected goals of 6.2, this shapes as an open game (80% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Dorogi vs Papai Perutz — FAQ
Who will win Dorogi vs Papai Perutz?
Our statistical model makes Dorogi the most likely result at 97%. Full probabilities: Dorogi 97%, draw 2%, Papai Perutz 1%.
Will both teams score in Dorogi vs Papai Perutz?
The model gives a 45% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Dorogi vs Papai Perutz?
Expected goals are 5.75 for Dorogi and 0.45 for Papai Perutz — about 6.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Dorogi vs Papai Perutz?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 5-0 (12%). Double chance for Dorogi or draw is 100%.