Drogheda United vs Dundalk Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Ireland) · Aug 28, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (IRELAND)
Drogheda United vs Dundalk
Model pick: Dundalk (39%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.25 – 1.04
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 45%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Drogheda United | Dundalk |
|---|
| League position | #9 (28 pts) | #4 (37 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.3 | 1.4 / 1.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 21% | 21% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 0.8 | 2.6 / 1.4 |
*Drogheda United shown at home, Dundalk shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Drogheda United — last 5
DDDWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 36% of home games go over 2.5.
Dundalk — last 5
DDLWL
On the road: clean sheet 39% of the time; 47% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Drogheda United (home) | Dundalk (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-6-5 in 14 (1.0 / 1.3 goals per game) | 3-7-4 in 14 (1.4 / 1.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 39% |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 47% |
Premier League (Ireland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.52
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Premier League (Ireland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.25 vs 1.04):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Drogheda United or draw (1X) | 69% |
| Double chance — Dundalk or draw (X2) | 59% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 67% / 33% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 20% / 80% |
| Drogheda United clean sheet | 35% |
| Dundalk clean sheet | 29% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Dundalk is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Despite playing away, Dundalk edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (55% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Drogheda United vs Dundalk — FAQ
Who will win Drogheda United vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model makes Dundalk the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Drogheda United 34%, draw 27%, Dundalk 39%.
Will both teams score in Drogheda United vs Dundalk?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Drogheda United vs Dundalk?
Expected goals are 1.25 for Drogheda United and 1.04 for Dundalk — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Drogheda United vs Dundalk?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Drogheda United or draw is 69%.