Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athletic Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Ireland) · Aug 21, 2026 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (IRELAND)
Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athletic
Model pick: St Patrick's Athletic (50%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.97 – 1.26
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Drogheda United | St Patrick's Athletic |
|---|
| League position | #9 (28 pts) | #2 (47 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.1 / 1.2 | 1.1 / 1.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 23% | 31% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 0.4 | 1.6 / 1.6 |
*Drogheda United shown at home, St Patrick's Athletic shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Drogheda United — last 5
WDDDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 37% of home games go over 2.5.
St Patrick's Athletic — last 5
LWDDW
On the road: clean sheet 28% of the time; 41% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Drogheda United (home) | St Patrick's Athletic (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-6-4 in 13 (1.1 / 1.2 goals per game) | 4-5-4 in 13 (1.1 / 1.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 28% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 41% |
Premier League (Ireland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.52
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Premier League (Ireland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.97 vs 1.26):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (14%) |
| Double chance — Drogheda United or draw (1X) | 57% |
| Double chance — St Patrick's Athletic or draw (X2) | 71% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 65% / 35% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 19% / 81% |
| Drogheda United clean sheet | 28% |
| St Patrick's Athletic clean sheet | 38% |
🎯 Our Verdict
St Patrick's Athletic is the model's most likely outcome at
50%. Despite playing away, St Patrick's Athletic edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (56% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athletic — FAQ
Who will win Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athletic?
Our statistical model makes St Patrick's Athletic the most likely result at 50%. Full probabilities: Drogheda United 23%, draw 27%, St Patrick's Athletic 50%.
Will both teams score in Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athletic?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athletic?
Expected goals are 0.97 for Drogheda United and 1.26 for St Patrick's Athletic — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athletic?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (14%). Double chance for Drogheda United or draw is 57%.