Dunaharaszti MTK vs Kaposvári Rákóczi Prediction & Preview
Nb III (Hungary) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
NB III (HUNGARY)
Dunaharaszti MTK vs Kaposvári Rákóczi
Model pick: Kaposvári Rákóczi (79%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.34 – 2.42
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 40%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Dunaharaszti MTK | Kaposvári Rákóczi |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.6 | 2.6 / 0.2 |
*Dunaharaszti MTK shown at home, Kaposvári Rákóczi shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Dunaharaszti MTK — last 5
LLWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Kaposvári Rákóczi — last 5
DWWWW
On the road: clean sheet 12% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Dunaharaszti MTK (home) | Kaposvári Rákóczi (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 12% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 31% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
Nb III (Hungary) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.3
Home wins: 50%
Draws: 17%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 65%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Nb III (Hungary) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.34 vs 2.42):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-2 (19%) |
| Double chance — Dunaharaszti MTK or draw (1X) | 16% |
| Double chance — Kaposvári Rákóczi or draw (X2) | 96% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 87% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 30% / 70% |
| Dunaharaszti MTK clean sheet | 9% |
| Kaposvári Rákóczi clean sheet | 71% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Kaposvári Rákóczi is the model's most likely outcome at
79%. Despite playing away, Kaposvári Rákóczi edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Dunaharaszti MTK vs Kaposvári Rákóczi — FAQ
Who will win Dunaharaszti MTK vs Kaposvári Rákóczi?
Our statistical model makes Kaposvári Rákóczi the most likely result at 79%. Full probabilities: Dunaharaszti MTK 6%, draw 16%, Kaposvári Rákóczi 79%.
Will both teams score in Dunaharaszti MTK vs Kaposvári Rákóczi?
The model gives a 40% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Dunaharaszti MTK vs Kaposvári Rákóczi?
Expected goals are 0.34 for Dunaharaszti MTK and 2.42 for Kaposvári Rákóczi — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Dunaharaszti MTK vs Kaposvári Rákóczi?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-2 (19%). Double chance for Dunaharaszti MTK or draw is 16%.