Dunav vs Arda Prediction & Preview
A PFG (Bulgaria) · Aug 08, 2026 · kickoff 18:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
A PFG (BULGARIA)
Dunav vs Arda
Model pick: Arda (46%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.98 – 1.4
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Dunav | Arda |
|---|
| League position | #14 (0 pts) | #7 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.0 / 2.0 | 1.0 / 1.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.6 | 0.6 / 0.8 |
*Dunav shown at home, Arda shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Dunav — last 5
DDLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 38% of the time; 34% of home games go over 2.5.
Arda — last 5
DLDWL
On the road: clean sheet 29% of the time; 31% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Dunav (home) | Arda (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 2.0 goals per game) | 0-1-1 in 2 (1.0 / 1.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 38% | 29% |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 38% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34% | 31% |
| Top scorer | – | Birsent Karagaren (7) |
A PFG (Bulgaria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.44
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 43%
Use these A PFG (Bulgaria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.98 vs 1.4):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Dunav or draw (1X) | 53% |
| Double chance — Arda or draw (X2) | 74% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 69% / 31% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 22% / 78% |
| Dunav clean sheet | 25% |
| Arda clean sheet | 38% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Arda is the model's most likely outcome at
46%. Despite playing away, Arda edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Dunav vs Arda — FAQ
Who will win Dunav vs Arda?
Our statistical model makes Arda the most likely result at 46%. Full probabilities: Dunav 26%, draw 28%, Arda 46%.
Will both teams score in Dunav vs Arda?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Dunav vs Arda?
Expected goals are 0.98 for Dunav and 1.4 for Arda — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Dunav vs Arda?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (13%). Double chance for Dunav or draw is 53%.