Dunav vs Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 Prediction & Preview
A PFG (Bulgaria) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
A PFG (BULGARIA)
Dunav vs Lokomotiv Sofia 1929
Model pick: Dunav (38%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.5 – 1.44
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 57%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Dunav | Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 |
|---|
| League position | #11 (3 pts) | #13 (2 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.0 / 2.0 | 1.0 / 1.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 2.0 | 1.0 / 2.0 |
*Dunav shown at home, Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Dunav — last 5
LLLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 37% of the time; 33% of home games go over 2.5.
Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 — last 5
DLDLL
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 46% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Dunav (home) | Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-2 in 2 (0.0 / 2.0 goals per game) | 0-2-1 in 3 (1.0 / 1.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 37% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 37% | 44% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 46% |
| Top scorer | – | Leandro Godoy (9) |
A PFG (Bulgaria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.44
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 43%
Use these A PFG (Bulgaria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.5 vs 1.44):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Dunav or draw (1X) | 64% |
| Double chance — Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 or draw (X2) | 61% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 79% / 21% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 34% / 66% |
| Dunav clean sheet | 24% |
| Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 clean sheet | 22% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Dunav is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Dunav are backed at home, where they average 1.1 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Dunav vs Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 — FAQ
Who will win Dunav vs Lokomotiv Sofia 1929?
Our statistical model makes Dunav the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Dunav 38%, draw 26%, Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 36%.
Will both teams score in Dunav vs Lokomotiv Sofia 1929?
The model gives a 57% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Dunav vs Lokomotiv Sofia 1929?
Expected goals are 1.5 for Dunav and 1.44 for Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Dunav vs Lokomotiv Sofia 1929?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Dunav or draw is 64%.