Dunav vs Ludogorets Prediction & Preview
A PFG (Bulgaria) · Jul 27, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
A PFG (BULGARIA)
Dunav vs Ludogorets
Model pick: Ludogorets (67%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.72 – 2.23
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Dunav | Ludogorets |
|---|
| League position | #13 (0 pts) | #3 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.8 | 1.0 / 0.8 |
*Dunav shown at home, Ludogorets shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Dunav — last 5
LLDDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 38% of the time; 35% of home games go over 2.5.
Ludogorets — last 5
DWWWL
On the road: clean sheet 47% of the time; 51% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Dunav (home) | Ludogorets (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 38% | 47% |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 42% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 51% |
A PFG (Bulgaria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.43
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 43%
Use these A PFG (Bulgaria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.72 vs 2.23):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-2 (13%) |
| Double chance — Dunav or draw (1X) | 28% |
| Double chance — Ludogorets or draw (X2) | 89% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 82% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 79% / 21% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 34% / 66% |
| Dunav clean sheet | 11% |
| Ludogorets clean sheet | 49% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Ludogorets is the model's most likely outcome at
67%. Despite playing away, Ludogorets edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Dunav vs Ludogorets — FAQ
Who will win Dunav vs Ludogorets?
Our statistical model makes Ludogorets the most likely result at 67%. Full probabilities: Dunav 13%, draw 20%, Ludogorets 67%.
Will both teams score in Dunav vs Ludogorets?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Dunav vs Ludogorets?
Expected goals are 0.72 for Dunav and 2.23 for Ludogorets — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Dunav vs Ludogorets?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-2 (13%). Double chance for Dunav or draw is 28%.