Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athletic Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Ireland) · Sep 04, 2026 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (IRELAND)
Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athletic
Model pick: St Patrick's Athletic (39%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.08 – 1.24
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Dundalk | St Patrick's Athletic |
|---|
| League position | #4 (40 pts) | #2 (50 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.6 / 1.3 | 1.1 / 1.1 |
| Win rate this season* | 43% | 36% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 3.0 / 1.6 | 1.6 / 1.2 |
*Dundalk shown at home, St Patrick's Athletic shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Dundalk — last 5
DLWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 48% of the time; 54% of home games go over 2.5.
St Patrick's Athletic — last 5
DWWWL
On the road: clean sheet 28% of the time; 41% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Dundalk (home) | St Patrick's Athletic (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-3-5 in 14 (1.6 / 1.3 goals per game) | 5-5-4 in 14 (1.1 / 1.1 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 48% | 28% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 41% |
Premier League (Ireland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.52
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Premier League (Ireland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.08 vs 1.24):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Dundalk or draw (1X) | 60% |
| Double chance — St Patrick's Athletic or draw (X2) | 68% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 67% / 33% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 20% / 80% |
| Dundalk clean sheet | 29% |
| St Patrick's Athletic clean sheet | 34% |
🎯 Our Verdict
St Patrick's Athletic is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Despite playing away, St Patrick's Athletic edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athletic — FAQ
Who will win Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athletic?
Our statistical model makes St Patrick's Athletic the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Dundalk 32%, draw 29%, St Patrick's Athletic 39%.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athletic?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athletic?
Expected goals are 1.08 for Dundalk and 1.24 for St Patrick's Athletic — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athletic?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Dundalk or draw is 60%.