Dundee United vs Falkirk Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Scotland) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (SCOTLAND)
Dundee United vs Falkirk
Model pick: Dundee United (43%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.47 – 1.24
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 58%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Dundee United | Falkirk |
|---|
| League position | #8 (4 pts) | #11 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.5 / 1.5 | 0.5 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 2.2 | 1.0 / 2.2 |
*Dundee United shown at home, Falkirk shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Dundee United — last 5
DLLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 34% of the time; 51% of home games go over 2.5.
Falkirk — last 5
LWLDL
On the road: clean sheet 29% of the time; 45% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Dundee United (home) | Falkirk (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-1 in 2 (0.5 / 1.5 goals per game) | 0-1-1 in 2 (0.5 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 34% | 29% |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 45% |
| Top scorer | Zachary Sapsford (9) | Ross MacIver (3) |
Premier League (Scotland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.72
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Premier League (Scotland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.47 vs 1.24):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Dundee United or draw (1X) | 68% |
| Double chance — Falkirk or draw (X2) | 58% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 75% / 25% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 29% / 71% |
| Dundee United clean sheet | 29% |
| Falkirk clean sheet | 23% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Dundee United is the model's most likely outcome at
43%. Dundee United are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
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❓ Dundee United vs Falkirk — FAQ
Who will win Dundee United vs Falkirk?
Our statistical model makes Dundee United the most likely result at 43%. Full probabilities: Dundee United 43%, draw 26%, Falkirk 30%.
Will both teams score in Dundee United vs Falkirk?
The model gives a 58% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Dundee United vs Falkirk?
Expected goals are 1.47 for Dundee United and 1.24 for Falkirk — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Dundee United vs Falkirk?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Dundee United or draw is 68%.