Dundee vs St. Johnstone Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Scotland) · Sep 02, 2026 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (SCOTLAND)
Dundee vs St. Johnstone
Model pick: Dundee (41%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.56 – 1.0
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Dundee | St. Johnstone |
|---|
| League position | #2 (6 pts) | #6 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 0.0 | 0.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 0.8 | 1.6 / 1.4 |
*Dundee shown at home, St. Johnstone shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Dundee — last 5
WLWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 26% of the time; 59% of home games go over 2.5.
St. Johnstone — last 5
WLLWL
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 47% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Dundee (home) | St. Johnstone (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (2.0 / 0.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 26% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 47% |
| Top scorer | Simon Murray (7) | – |
Premier League (Scotland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.72
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Premier League (Scotland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.56 vs 1.0):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (12%) |
| Double chance — Dundee or draw (1X) | 76% |
| Double chance — St. Johnstone or draw (X2) | 50% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 26% / 74% |
| Dundee clean sheet | 37% |
| St. Johnstone clean sheet | 21% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Dundee is the model's most likely outcome at
41%. Dundee are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Dundee vs St. Johnstone — FAQ
Who will win Dundee vs St. Johnstone?
Our statistical model makes Dundee the most likely result at 41%. Full probabilities: Dundee 41%, draw 27%, St. Johnstone 32%.
Will both teams score in Dundee vs St. Johnstone?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Dundee vs St. Johnstone?
Expected goals are 1.56 for Dundee and 1.0 for St. Johnstone — about 2.6 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Dundee vs St. Johnstone?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (12%). Double chance for Dundee or draw is 76%.