Dunfermline Athletic vs Ayr United Prediction & Preview
Division1 (Scotland) · Aug 08, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
DIVISION1 (SCOTLAND)
Dunfermline Athletic vs Ayr United
Model pick: Dunfermline Athletic (45%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.33 – 1.09
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 47%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Dunfermline Athletic | Ayr United |
|---|
| League position | #7 (1 pts) | #2 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 0.8 | 2.4 / 0.6 |
*Dunfermline Athletic shown at home, Ayr United shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Dunfermline Athletic — last 5
LWWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 34% of the time; 46% of home games go over 2.5.
Ayr United — last 5
WWWWW
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 51% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Dunfermline Athletic (home) | Ayr United (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 34% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 51% |
Division1 (Scotland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.6
Home wins: 40%
Draws: 29%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Division1 (Scotland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.33 vs 1.09):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Dunfermline Athletic or draw (1X) | 69% |
| Double chance — Ayr United or draw (X2) | 58% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 70% / 30% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 23% / 77% |
| Dunfermline Athletic clean sheet | 34% |
| Ayr United clean sheet | 26% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Dunfermline Athletic is the model's most likely outcome at
45%. Dunfermline Athletic are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (53% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Dunfermline Athletic vs Ayr United — FAQ
Who will win Dunfermline Athletic vs Ayr United?
Our statistical model makes Dunfermline Athletic the most likely result at 45%. Full probabilities: Dunfermline Athletic 45%, draw 29%, Ayr United 26%.
Will both teams score in Dunfermline Athletic vs Ayr United?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Dunfermline Athletic vs Ayr United?
Expected goals are 1.33 for Dunfermline Athletic and 1.09 for Ayr United — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Dunfermline Athletic vs Ayr United?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Dunfermline Athletic or draw is 69%.