Dunfermline Athletic vs Raith Rovers Prediction & Preview
Division1 (Scotland) · Aug 28, 2026 · kickoff 18:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
DIVISION1 (SCOTLAND)
Dunfermline Athletic vs Raith Rovers
Model pick: Dunfermline Athletic (36%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.24 – 1.09
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Dunfermline Athletic | Raith Rovers |
|---|
| League position | #8 (2 pts) | #2 (7 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.0 | 2.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.0 | 1.2 / 0.6 |
*Dunfermline Athletic shown at home, Raith Rovers shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Dunfermline Athletic — last 5
WDDLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 46% of home games go over 2.5.
Raith Rovers — last 5
WLDWW
On the road: clean sheet 29% of the time; 41% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Dunfermline Athletic (home) | Raith Rovers (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-0 in 1 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 1-0-0 in 1 (2.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 29% |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 39% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 41% |
Division1 (Scotland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.6
Home wins: 40%
Draws: 29%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Division1 (Scotland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.24 vs 1.09):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Dunfermline Athletic or draw (1X) | 68% |
| Double chance — Raith Rovers or draw (X2) | 60% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 68% / 32% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 21% / 79% |
| Dunfermline Athletic clean sheet | 34% |
| Raith Rovers clean sheet | 29% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Dunfermline Athletic is the model's most likely outcome at
36%. Dunfermline Athletic are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Dunfermline Athletic vs Raith Rovers — FAQ
Who will win Dunfermline Athletic vs Raith Rovers?
Our statistical model makes Dunfermline Athletic the most likely result at 36%. Full probabilities: Dunfermline Athletic 36%, draw 29%, Raith Rovers 36%.
Will both teams score in Dunfermline Athletic vs Raith Rovers?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Dunfermline Athletic vs Raith Rovers?
Expected goals are 1.24 for Dunfermline Athletic and 1.09 for Raith Rovers — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Dunfermline Athletic vs Raith Rovers?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Dunfermline Athletic or draw is 68%.