Durango vs San Ignacio Prediction & Preview
Tercera (Spain) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
TERCERA (SPAIN)
Durango vs San Ignacio
Model pick: Durango (43%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.19 – 0.8
Total goals: 2.0
Over 2.5: 40%
Both teams score: 47%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Durango | San Ignacio |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.2 | 3.2 / 1.2 |
*Durango shown at home, San Ignacio shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Durango — last 5
WDLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 37% of the time; 41% of home games go over 2.5.
San Ignacio — last 5
WWWWD
On the road: clean sheet 32% of the time; 39% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Durango (home) | San Ignacio (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 37% | 32% |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 39% |
Tercera (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.49
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Tercera (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.19 vs 0.8):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (16%) |
| Double chance — Durango or draw (1X) | 75% |
| Double chance — San Ignacio or draw (X2) | 55% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 70% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 59% / 41% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 14% / 86% |
| Durango clean sheet | 45% |
| San Ignacio clean sheet | 30% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Durango is the model's most likely outcome at
43%. Durango are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (60% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Durango vs San Ignacio — FAQ
Who will win Durango vs San Ignacio?
Our statistical model makes Durango the most likely result at 43%. Full probabilities: Durango 43%, draw 31%, San Ignacio 26%.
Will both teams score in Durango vs San Ignacio?
The model gives a 47% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Durango vs San Ignacio?
Expected goals are 1.19 for Durango and 0.8 for San Ignacio — about 2.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Durango vs San Ignacio?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (16%). Double chance for Durango or draw is 75%.