Egersund vs Stabæk Prediction & Preview
Adeccoligaen (Norway) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
ADECCOLIGAEN (NORWAY)
Egersund vs Stabæk
Model pick: Stabæk (40%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.97 – 1.58
Total goals: 3.5
Over 2.5: 62%
Both teams score: 67%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Egersund | Stabæk |
|---|
| League position | #7 (26 pts) | #2 (36 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.8 / 1.0 | 2.1 / 1.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 67% | 44% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 0.8 | 3.6 / 2.0 |
*Egersund shown at home, Stabæk shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Egersund — last 5
DWDWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 24% of the time; 53% of home games go over 2.5.
Stabæk — last 5
LWWWW
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 64% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Egersund (home) | Stabæk (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-1-2 in 9 (1.8 / 1.0 goals per game) | 4-3-2 in 9 (2.1 / 1.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 24% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 64% |
Adeccoligaen (Norway) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.1
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 60%
Use these Adeccoligaen (Norway) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.97 vs 1.58):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (9%) |
| Double chance — Egersund or draw (1X) | 69% |
| Double chance — Stabæk or draw (X2) | 53% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 87% / 13% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 47% / 53% |
| Egersund clean sheet | 21% |
| Stabæk clean sheet | 14% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Stabæk is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Despite playing away, Stabæk edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.5, this shapes as an open game (62% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Egersund vs Stabæk — FAQ
Who will win Egersund vs Stabæk?
Our statistical model makes Stabæk the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Egersund 36%, draw 24%, Stabæk 40%.
Will both teams score in Egersund vs Stabæk?
The model gives a 67% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Egersund vs Stabæk?
Expected goals are 1.97 for Egersund and 1.58 for Stabæk — about 3.5 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Egersund vs Stabæk?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (9%). Double chance for Egersund or draw is 69%.