Eibar III vs Deportivo Alavés III Prediction & Preview
Tercera (Spain) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
TERCERA (SPAIN)
Eibar III vs Deportivo Alavés III
Model pick: Eibar III (38%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.46 – 1.39
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 53%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Eibar III | Deportivo Alavés III |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.8 / 1.2 | 1.4 / 1.8 |
*Eibar III shown at home, Deportivo Alavés III shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Eibar III — last 5
LWDWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 57% of home games go over 2.5.
Deportivo Alavés III — last 5
WLWLL
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 44% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Eibar III (home) | Deportivo Alavés III (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 44% |
Tercera (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.49
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Tercera (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.46 vs 1.39):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Eibar III or draw (1X) | 64% |
| Double chance — Deportivo Alavés III or draw (X2) | 61% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 78% / 22% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 32% / 68% |
| Eibar III clean sheet | 25% |
| Deportivo Alavés III clean sheet | 23% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Eibar III is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Eibar III are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (47% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Eibar III vs Deportivo Alavés III — FAQ
Who will win Eibar III vs Deportivo Alavés III?
Our statistical model makes Eibar III the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Eibar III 38%, draw 26%, Deportivo Alavés III 36%.
Will both teams score in Eibar III vs Deportivo Alavés III?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Eibar III vs Deportivo Alavés III?
Expected goals are 1.46 for Eibar III and 1.39 for Deportivo Alavés III — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Eibar III vs Deportivo Alavés III?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Eibar III or draw is 64%.