Eibar vs Granada Prediction & Preview
Segunda (Spain) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SEGUNDA (SPAIN)
Eibar vs Granada
Model pick: Eibar (47%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.34 – 0.94
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 45%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Eibar | Granada |
|---|
| League position | #8 (6 pts) | #1 (7 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.5 | 1.5 / 0.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 0.8 | 1.6 / 0.6 |
*Eibar shown at home, Granada shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Eibar — last 5
WDLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 38% of the time; 45% of home games go over 2.5.
Granada — last 5
LWDWW
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Eibar (home) | Granada (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-1 in 2 (1.0 / 1.5 goals per game) | 1-1-0 in 2 (1.5 / 0.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 38% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 50% |
| Top scorer | – | Ruben Alcaraz (1) |
Segunda (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.29
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Segunda (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.34 vs 0.94):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Eibar or draw (1X) | 74% |
| Double chance — Granada or draw (X2) | 54% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 20% / 80% |
| Eibar clean sheet | 39% |
| Granada clean sheet | 26% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Eibar is the model's most likely outcome at
47%. Eibar are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (55% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Eibar vs Granada — FAQ
Who will win Eibar vs Granada?
Our statistical model makes Eibar the most likely result at 47%. Full probabilities: Eibar 47%, draw 28%, Granada 25%.
Will both teams score in Eibar vs Granada?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Eibar vs Granada?
Expected goals are 1.34 for Eibar and 0.94 for Granada — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Eibar vs Granada?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Eibar or draw is 74%.