Eindhoven vs MVV Prediction & Preview
Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Aug 14, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EERSTE DIVISIE (NETHERLANDS)
Eindhoven vs MVV
Model pick: Eindhoven (47%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.74 – 1.24
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 55%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Eindhoven | MVV |
|---|
| League position | #5 (0 pts) | #8 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 2.0 | 1.4 / 1.6 |
*Eindhoven shown at home, MVV shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Eindhoven — last 5
DDLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 24% of the time; 61% of home games go over 2.5.
MVV — last 5
DDLLW
On the road: clean sheet 17% of the time; 60% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Eindhoven (home) | MVV (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 24% | 17% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 60% |
Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.14
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 61%
BTTS: 60%
Use these Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.74 vs 1.24):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Eindhoven or draw (1X) | 73% |
| Double chance — MVV or draw (X2) | 51% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 80% / 20% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 35% / 65% |
| Eindhoven clean sheet | 29% |
| MVV clean sheet | 18% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Eindhoven is the model's most likely outcome at
47%. Eindhoven are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.0, this shapes as an open game (55% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Eindhoven vs MVV — FAQ
Who will win Eindhoven vs MVV?
Our statistical model makes Eindhoven the most likely result at 47%. Full probabilities: Eindhoven 47%, draw 25%, MVV 28%.
Will both teams score in Eindhoven vs MVV?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Eindhoven vs MVV?
Expected goals are 1.74 for Eindhoven and 1.24 for MVV — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Eindhoven vs MVV?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Eindhoven or draw is 73%.