Ekranas vs Garliava Prediction & Preview
1 Lyga (Lithuania) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
1 LYGA (LITHUANIA)
Ekranas vs Garliava
Model pick: Ekranas (54%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.12 – 0.31
Total goals: 1.4
Over 2.5: 30%
Both teams score: 35%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Ekranas | Garliava |
|---|
| League position | #16 (11 pts) | #12 (22 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 2.5 | 0.8 / 1.4 |
| Win rate this season* | 18% | 20% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 3.0 | 0.2 / 1.6 |
*Ekranas shown at home, Garliava shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Ekranas — last 5
DWLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 75% of home games go over 2.5.
Garliava — last 5
LLLLL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 33% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Ekranas (home) | Garliava (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-1-8 in 11 (1.0 / 2.5 goals per game) | 2-1-7 in 10 (0.8 / 1.4 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 33% |
1 Lyga (Lithuania) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.93
Home wins: 51%
Draws: 15%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 57%
BTTS: 54%
Use these 1 Lyga (Lithuania) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.12 vs 0.31):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (27%) |
| Double chance — Ekranas or draw (1X) | 90% |
| Double chance — Garliava or draw (X2) | 43% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 67% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 42% / 58% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 6% / 94% |
| Ekranas clean sheet | 73% |
| Garliava clean sheet | 33% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Ekranas is the model's most likely outcome at
54%. Ekranas are backed at home, where they average 0.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (70% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Ekranas vs Garliava — FAQ
Who will win Ekranas vs Garliava?
Our statistical model makes Ekranas the most likely result at 54%. Full probabilities: Ekranas 54%, draw 34%, Garliava 13%.
Will both teams score in Ekranas vs Garliava?
The model gives a 35% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Ekranas vs Garliava?
Expected goals are 1.12 for Ekranas and 0.31 for Garliava — about 1.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Ekranas vs Garliava?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (27%). Double chance for Ekranas or draw is 90%.