El Paso vs Loudoun Prediction & Preview
USL 1 (USA) · Aug 30, 2026 · kickoff 01:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
USL 1 (USA)
El Paso vs Loudoun
Model pick: El Paso (46%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.46 – 0.27
Total goals: 0.7
Over 2.5: 14%
Both teams score: 47%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| El Paso | Loudoun |
|---|
| League position | #2 (34 pts) | #10 (20 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.6 / 1.8 | 0.8 / 1.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 44% | 25% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 0.2 |
*El Paso shown at home, Loudoun shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
El Paso — last 5
LWWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 75% of the time; 0% of home games go over 2.5.
Loudoun — last 5
WWLDD
On the road: clean sheet 67% of the time; 0% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | El Paso (home) | Loudoun (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-2-3 in 9 (1.6 / 1.8 goals per game) | 2-3-3 in 8 (0.8 / 1.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 75% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 0% |
USL 1 (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.52
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 47%
Use these USL 1 (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.46 vs 0.27):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (48%) |
| Double chance — El Paso or draw (1X) | 84% |
| Double chance — Loudoun or draw (X2) | 70% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 46% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 17% / 83% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 1% / 99% |
| El Paso clean sheet | 76% |
| Loudoun clean sheet | 63% |
🎯 Our Verdict
El Paso is the model's most likely outcome at
46%. El Paso are backed at home, where they average 1.0 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (86% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ El Paso vs Loudoun — FAQ
Who will win El Paso vs Loudoun?
Our statistical model makes El Paso the most likely result at 46%. Full probabilities: El Paso 46%, draw 34%, Loudoun 20%.
Will both teams score in El Paso vs Loudoun?
The model gives a 47% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in El Paso vs Loudoun?
Expected goals are 0.46 for El Paso and 0.27 for Loudoun — about 0.7 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in El Paso vs Loudoun?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (48%). Double chance for El Paso or draw is 84%.