El Paso vs Pittsburgh Prediction & Preview
USL 1 (USA) · Aug 27, 2026 · kickoff 01:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
USL 1 (USA)
El Paso vs Pittsburgh
Model pick: El Paso (52%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.2 – 0.46
Total goals: 1.7
Over 2.5: 34%
Both teams score: 40%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| El Paso | Pittsburgh |
|---|
| League position | #4 (31 pts) | #5 (30 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.6 / 1.8 | 1.0 / 1.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 44% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 0.4 | 0.8 / 0.6 |
*El Paso shown at home, Pittsburgh shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
El Paso — last 5
WLWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 75% of the time; 0% of home games go over 2.5.
Pittsburgh — last 5
LLWDW
On the road: clean sheet 50% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | El Paso (home) | Pittsburgh (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-2-3 in 9 (1.6 / 1.8 goals per game) | 3-2-4 in 9 (1.0 / 1.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 75% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 50% |
USL 1 (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.49
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 42%
BTTS: 48%
Use these USL 1 (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.2 vs 0.46):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (23%) |
| Double chance — El Paso or draw (1X) | 86% |
| Double chance — Pittsburgh or draw (X2) | 45% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 69% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 49% / 51% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 9% / 91% |
| El Paso clean sheet | 63% |
| Pittsburgh clean sheet | 30% |
🎯 Our Verdict
El Paso is the model's most likely outcome at
52%. El Paso are backed at home, where they average 1.0 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (66% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ El Paso vs Pittsburgh — FAQ
Who will win El Paso vs Pittsburgh?
Our statistical model makes El Paso the most likely result at 52%. Full probabilities: El Paso 52%, draw 32%, Pittsburgh 16%.
Will both teams score in El Paso vs Pittsburgh?
The model gives a 40% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in El Paso vs Pittsburgh?
Expected goals are 1.2 for El Paso and 0.46 for Pittsburgh — about 1.7 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in El Paso vs Pittsburgh?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (23%). Double chance for El Paso or draw is 86%.