Elana Toruń vs Unia Swarzedz Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 19, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Elana Toruń vs Unia Swarzedz
Model pick: Unia Swarzedz (100%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.67 – 10.94
Total goals: 11.6
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 38%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Elana Toruń | Unia Swarzedz |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.8 / 2.0 | 2.0 / 2.6 |
*Elana Toruń shown at home, Unia Swarzedz shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Elana Toruń — last 5
WLWDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 14% of the time; 71% of home games go over 2.5.
Unia Swarzedz — last 5
LWWWL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 67% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Elana Toruń (home) | Unia Swarzedz (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 14% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 76% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 67% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.15
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 62%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.67 vs 10.94):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-8 (19%) |
| Double chance — Elana Toruń or draw (1X) | 0% |
| Double chance — Unia Swarzedz or draw (X2) | 100% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 100% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 100% / 0% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 99% / 1% |
| Elana Toruń clean sheet | 0% |
| Unia Swarzedz clean sheet | 51% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Unia Swarzedz is the model's most likely outcome at
100%. Despite playing away, Unia Swarzedz edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Elana Toruń vs Unia Swarzedz — FAQ
Who will win Elana Toruń vs Unia Swarzedz?
Our statistical model makes Unia Swarzedz the most likely result at 100%. Full probabilities: Elana Toruń 0%, draw 0%, Unia Swarzedz 100%.
Will both teams score in Elana Toruń vs Unia Swarzedz?
The model gives a 38% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Elana Toruń vs Unia Swarzedz?
Expected goals are 0.67 for Elana Toruń and 10.94 for Unia Swarzedz — about 11.6 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Elana Toruń vs Unia Swarzedz?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-8 (19%). Double chance for Elana Toruń or draw is 0%.