Eldense vs Cádiz Prediction & Preview
Segunda (Spain) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 19:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SEGUNDA (SPAIN)
Eldense vs Cádiz
Model pick: Eldense (40%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.32 – 1.13
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Eldense | Cádiz |
|---|
| League position | #16 (0 pts) | #9 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.4 | 1.4 / 1.6 |
*Eldense shown at home, Cádiz shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Eldense — last 5
WLLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 41% of the time; 45% of home games go over 2.5.
Cádiz — last 5
LWWLD
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 39% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Eldense (home) | Cádiz (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 41% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 39% |
| Top scorer | – | Ruben Alcaraz (1) |
Segunda (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.29
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Segunda (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.32 vs 1.13):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Eldense or draw (1X) | 68% |
| Double chance — Cádiz or draw (X2) | 59% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 70% / 30% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 23% / 77% |
| Eldense clean sheet | 32% |
| Cádiz clean sheet | 27% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Eldense is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Eldense are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Eldense vs Cádiz — FAQ
Who will win Eldense vs Cádiz?
Our statistical model makes Eldense the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Eldense 40%, draw 28%, Cádiz 32%.
Will both teams score in Eldense vs Cádiz?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Eldense vs Cádiz?
Expected goals are 1.32 for Eldense and 1.13 for Cádiz — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Eldense vs Cádiz?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Eldense or draw is 68%.