Eldense vs Mallorca Prediction & Preview
Segunda (Spain) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SEGUNDA (SPAIN)
Eldense vs Mallorca
Model pick: Mallorca (50%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.77 – 1.42
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Eldense | Mallorca |
|---|
| League position | #20 (1 pts) | #4 (6 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 2.0 | 0.0 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.4 | 1.8 / 0.6 |
*Eldense shown at home, Mallorca shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Eldense — last 5
LWLDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 41% of the time; 45% of home games go over 2.5.
Mallorca — last 5
WDWLW
On the road: clean sheet 23% of the time; 39% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Eldense (home) | Mallorca (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-0 in 1 (2.0 / 2.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 41% | 23% |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 45% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 39% |
Segunda (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.29
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Segunda (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.77 vs 1.42):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (16%) |
| Double chance — Eldense or draw (1X) | 48% |
| Double chance — Mallorca or draw (X2) | 80% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 64% / 36% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 18% / 82% |
| Eldense clean sheet | 24% |
| Mallorca clean sheet | 46% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Mallorca is the model's most likely outcome at
50%. Despite playing away, Mallorca edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (56% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Eldense vs Mallorca — FAQ
Who will win Eldense vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model makes Mallorca the most likely result at 50%. Full probabilities: Eldense 22%, draw 28%, Mallorca 50%.
Will both teams score in Eldense vs Mallorca?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Eldense vs Mallorca?
Expected goals are 0.77 for Eldense and 1.42 for Mallorca — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Eldense vs Mallorca?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (16%). Double chance for Eldense or draw is 48%.