Železničar Pančevo vs Radnik Surdulica Prediction & Preview
Super Liga (Serbia) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LIGA (SERBIA)
Železničar Pančevo vs Radnik Surdulica
Model pick: Železničar Pančevo (46%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.37 – 0.86
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Železničar Pančevo | Radnik Surdulica |
|---|
| League position | #11 (5 pts) | #7 (8 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 0.5 | 0.5 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.6 | 1.0 / 0.8 |
*Železničar Pančevo shown at home, Radnik Surdulica shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Železničar Pančevo — last 5
WLLDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 34% of the time; 48% of home games go over 2.5.
Radnik Surdulica — last 5
DDLWW
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 42% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Železničar Pančevo (home) | Radnik Surdulica (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-1-0 in 2 (1.0 / 0.5 goals per game) | 0-1-1 in 2 (0.5 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 34% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 42% |
| Top scorer | Kwaku Karikari (7) | Luka Zoric (3) |
Super Liga (Serbia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.62
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Super Liga (Serbia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.37 vs 0.86):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (15%) |
| Double chance — Železničar Pančevo or draw (1X) | 76% |
| Double chance — Radnik Surdulica or draw (X2) | 51% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 65% / 35% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 19% / 81% |
| Železničar Pančevo clean sheet | 42% |
| Radnik Surdulica clean sheet | 25% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Železničar Pančevo is the model's most likely outcome at
46%. Železničar Pančevo are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (56% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Železničar Pančevo vs Radnik Surdulica — FAQ
Who will win Železničar Pančevo vs Radnik Surdulica?
Our statistical model makes Železničar Pančevo the most likely result at 46%. Full probabilities: Železničar Pančevo 46%, draw 29%, Radnik Surdulica 25%.
Will both teams score in Železničar Pančevo vs Radnik Surdulica?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Železničar Pančevo vs Radnik Surdulica?
Expected goals are 1.37 for Železničar Pančevo and 0.86 for Radnik Surdulica — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Železničar Pančevo vs Radnik Surdulica?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (15%). Double chance for Železničar Pančevo or draw is 76%.