Elfsborg vs Degerfors Prediction & Preview
Allsvenskan (Sweden) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
ALLSVENSKAN (SWEDEN)
Elfsborg vs Degerfors
Model pick: Elfsborg (58%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.01 – 1.09
Total goals: 3.1
Over 2.5: 56%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Elfsborg | Degerfors |
|---|
| League position | #4 (28 pts) | #14 (16 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.6 / 1.0 | 0.9 / 1.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 44% | 22% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 0.4 | 2.0 / 1.2 |
*Elfsborg shown at home, Degerfors shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Elfsborg — last 5
WWWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 30% of the time; 66% of home games go over 2.5.
Degerfors — last 5
LWWWL
On the road: clean sheet 16% of the time; 52% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Elfsborg (home) | Degerfors (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-3-2 in 9 (1.6 / 1.0 goals per game) | 2-2-5 in 9 (0.9 / 1.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 30% | 16% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 52% |
Allsvenskan (Sweden) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.81
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Allsvenskan (Sweden) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.01 vs 1.09):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Elfsborg or draw (1X) | 80% |
| Double chance — Degerfors or draw (X2) | 41% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 82% / 18% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 38% / 62% |
| Elfsborg clean sheet | 34% |
| Degerfors clean sheet | 13% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Elfsborg is the model's most likely outcome at
58%. Elfsborg are backed at home, where they average 2.0 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.1, this shapes as an open game (56% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Elfsborg vs Degerfors — FAQ
Who will win Elfsborg vs Degerfors?
Our statistical model makes Elfsborg the most likely result at 58%. Full probabilities: Elfsborg 58%, draw 23%, Degerfors 18%.
Will both teams score in Elfsborg vs Degerfors?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Elfsborg vs Degerfors?
Expected goals are 2.01 for Elfsborg and 1.09 for Degerfors — about 3.1 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Elfsborg vs Degerfors?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (10%). Double chance for Elfsborg or draw is 80%.