Elfsborg vs Västerås SK Prediction & Preview
Allsvenskan (Sweden) · Aug 14, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
ALLSVENSKAN (SWEDEN)
Elfsborg vs Västerås SK
Model pick: Elfsborg (48%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.01 – 1.15
Total goals: 3.2
Over 2.5: 57%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Elfsborg | Västerås SK |
|---|
| League position | #6 (24 pts) | #8 (22 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.4 / 1.1 | 1.2 / 2.1 |
| Win rate this season* | 38% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.4 | 1.4 / 1.4 |
*Elfsborg shown at home, Västerås SK shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Elfsborg — last 5
LLLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 30% of the time; 65% of home games go over 2.5.
Västerås SK — last 5
WWDWL
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 51% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Elfsborg (home) | Västerås SK (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-3-2 in 8 (1.4 / 1.1 goals per game) | 4-1-3 in 8 (1.2 / 2.1 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 30% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 51% |
Allsvenskan (Sweden) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.81
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Allsvenskan (Sweden) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.01 vs 1.15):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Elfsborg or draw (1X) | 79% |
| Double chance — Västerås SK or draw (X2) | 43% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 82% / 18% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 39% / 61% |
| Elfsborg clean sheet | 32% |
| Västerås SK clean sheet | 13% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Elfsborg is the model's most likely outcome at
48%. Elfsborg are backed at home, where they average 2.0 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.2, this shapes as an open game (57% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Elfsborg vs Västerås SK — FAQ
Who will win Elfsborg vs Västerås SK?
Our statistical model makes Elfsborg the most likely result at 48%. Full probabilities: Elfsborg 48%, draw 25%, Västerås SK 27%.
Will both teams score in Elfsborg vs Västerås SK?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Elfsborg vs Västerås SK?
Expected goals are 2.01 for Elfsborg and 1.15 for Västerås SK — about 3.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Elfsborg vs Västerås SK?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (10%). Double chance for Elfsborg or draw is 79%.