Elverum vs Lillehammer Prediction & Preview
3 Divisjon (Norway) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
3 DIVISJON (NORWAY)
Elverum vs Lillehammer
Model pick: Lillehammer (41%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.48 – 2.55
Total goals: 5.0
Over 2.5: 76%
Both teams score: 71%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Elverum | Lillehammer |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 4.0 / 2.0 | 2.8 / 1.6 |
*Elverum shown at home, Lillehammer shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Elverum — last 5
WWWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 17% of the time; 56% of home games go over 2.5.
Lillehammer — last 5
WWWWL
On the road: clean sheet 50% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Elverum (home) | Lillehammer (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 17% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 50% |
3 Divisjon (Norway) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 4.65
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 14%
Away wins: 37%
Over 2.5: 80%
BTTS: 68%
Use these 3 Divisjon (Norway) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.48 vs 2.55):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-2 (7%) |
| Double chance — Elverum or draw (1X) | 58% |
| Double chance — Lillehammer or draw (X2) | 60% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 82% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 96% / 4% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 74% / 26% |
| Elverum clean sheet | 8% |
| Lillehammer clean sheet | 8% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Lillehammer is the model's most likely outcome at
41%. Despite playing away, Lillehammer edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 5.0, this shapes as an open game (76% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Elverum vs Lillehammer — FAQ
Who will win Elverum vs Lillehammer?
Our statistical model makes Lillehammer the most likely result at 41%. Full probabilities: Elverum 39%, draw 20%, Lillehammer 41%.
Will both teams score in Elverum vs Lillehammer?
The model gives a 71% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Elverum vs Lillehammer?
Expected goals are 2.48 for Elverum and 2.55 for Lillehammer — about 5.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Elverum vs Lillehammer?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-2 (7%). Double chance for Elverum or draw is 58%.